The most recent anticipated storm track of Irene suggests that the center of the hurricane will hug the NJ coast, passing by central NJ around 2PM on Sunday. This track has been relatively stable over the past 12 hours. There have been some wobbles westward, and the most recent update has a slight eastward wobble. But overall, the track's stability leads me to believe that there will not likely be major changes to come.
If this is the case, central NJ would likely be in for rain beginning late Saturday afternoon, becoming heavy before midnight. The heaviest rain would take place after midnight Sunday, until the storm passes our area Sunday afternoon. Winds would likely pick up overnight Sunday (during the wee hours of the morning), with the worst of the winds (probably mostly in the 30-50 mph range) blowing through the area Sunday from 9AM to 3PM. The 6AM to 3PM window is the most likely time for wind-related damage to occur, and this would also be the period where flash-flooding, if it happens, would occur as well. Also, if any tornadoes were spawned by the storm, they would probably take place during this time.
Of course, if the storm tracks further east, and this is still quite possible, then most of the impact I just described would be minimized for our area. But unless and until the forecast track moves away from this area, I would encourage all central NJ residents, but especially those prone to flooding and wind-related problems, to take sensible and reasonable precautions. Irene should not cause anyone to panic, but this storm, which could be unlike any that most NJ residents have experienced, should not be ignored.
No comments:
Post a Comment