The forecast models have continued to wobble back and forth regarding the eventual track of the eye of Hurricane Irene. For several days, the storm track moved consistently east. Then late Wednesday night, the storm track began shifting west, until it was almost directly over our area. Then late last night, it started shifting slightly east again. The current track is off the NJ coast, but very close to the actual coastline.
Of course, this is just the eye of the storm. The storm is wide enough that all of NJ, and eastern PA, will be affected in some way. At this point, there is very little chance of the storm missing the area entirely. It is great news that the eye of the storm should pass offshore, thus allowing nearly all of NJ to bypass the hurricane-force winds, and heaviest rainfall. However, a good portion of NJ should still see tropical storm-force winds and moderate to heavy rain.
As for timing and intensity... it now looks like most of the forecast area should begin to see rain starting in the late afternoon Saturday. The rain should be showery until around 10PM when it should become steadier. The heaviest rain should take place between 2AM and 10AM Sunday. In general, most areas will likely receive 4-8 inches of rain, with some areas far west receiving maybe as little as 3", and areas further east perhaps getting as much as 10".
With regard to winds, the wind intensity should not pick up until around 11PM Saturday. The strongest winds should be between 2AM and 10AM Sunday. Most areas will likely see winds in the 15-30 mph range, but there will be gusts up to 50 mph, especially early Sunday morning.
This forecast can still change somewhat, depending on the track of the storm. However, as previously stated, the chance of a "miss" is very slim. I will issue further updates this evening, later tonight, and tomorrow.
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